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Jul 17, 2011
07/11
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a fellow who was a treasury official, jay powell in the george h.w. bush administration did analysis of what the government would have to cut. 44% in other spending. even if you pay social security, medicare benefits, you have to choose among military salary, veteran benefit, unemployment insurance, f.b.i., f.a.a. bill gross, head of pemco, the world's biggest bond company, bond fund, already sold, they have spoke within their wallet, they sold most of treasury securities, he says that the market situation might resemble what happened after lehman brothers collapsed in 2008. this isn't a politician. this is the market talking. >> again, the market is saying that they are saying if we don't do something real to put us on sustainable fiscal path, do something real, they will downgrade us whether the debt creeling is passed august 2 or not. that is the most important thing to keep in mind. where we're headed. the big crisis coming is more important than anything right now. if we get past august 2, the president has to lead. he will have to make choices.
a fellow who was a treasury official, jay powell in the george h.w. bush administration did analysis of what the government would have to cut. 44% in other spending. even if you pay social security, medicare benefits, you have to choose among military salary, veteran benefit, unemployment insurance, f.b.i., f.a.a. bill gross, head of pemco, the world's biggest bond company, bond fund, already sold, they have spoke within their wallet, they sold most of treasury securities, he says that the...
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Jul 15, 2011
07/11
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according to an independent report led by jay powell, a republican former treasury official, in august the u.s. has an estimated $306 billion in payment obligations but would only take in $172 billion in revenue, leaving $134 billion shortfall for the month of august. in other words, president obama would have to immediately cut 44% of federal spending. as "the washington post" points out, through august, the government could afford social security, medicare, medicaid, defense contracts, unemployment insurance and payments to bondholders. but then, it would have to eliminate all other federal spending, including pay for veterans for members of the armed services, civil servants, as well as funding for pell grants, special education programs, the federal courts, law enforcement, the fbi. what do they do, close it down? national nuclear programs. housing assistance. it goes on and on. and this is to say nothing of the impact on global financial markets. >> i think it would be a calamitous outcome, create a very severe financial shock that would affect not only the u.s. economy but the gl
according to an independent report led by jay powell, a republican former treasury official, in august the u.s. has an estimated $306 billion in payment obligations but would only take in $172 billion in revenue, leaving $134 billion shortfall for the month of august. in other words, president obama would have to immediately cut 44% of federal spending. as "the washington post" points out, through august, the government could afford social security, medicare, medicaid, defense...
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Jul 22, 2011
07/11
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. >> jay powell, interest rates, presumably they would go up in the doomsday scenario? >> yes, i think kristy said it demand goes down, rates go up and that could play out at a consumer rates, mortgage rates, that sort of thing. by add, in the instance of default, i don't think you are looking at lehman. the chaos in the economy, it'll be in people who weren't getting payments and really significant negative shock to the economy rather than in the markets. >> the other thing, if i could add there, jay, is what we don't know is the unknown unknowns. so you know, there are so many dominos in the world economy that be connected to u.s. treasuries and that are built around a triple a rating for u.s. treasuries with. we can't predict what link there will be in the global chain that would break in the u.s. defaults. >> should someone at home watching itself play itself out, news of reports going on behind closed doors, whether the government preparing, whether rating folks preparing, whether wall street preparing, what about a typical american? is there any level of preparati
. >> jay powell, interest rates, presumably they would go up in the doomsday scenario? >> yes, i think kristy said it demand goes down, rates go up and that could play out at a consumer rates, mortgage rates, that sort of thing. by add, in the instance of default, i don't think you are looking at lehman. the chaos in the economy, it'll be in people who weren't getting payments and really significant negative shock to the economy rather than in the markets. >> the other thing,...
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Jul 21, 2011
07/11
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. >> jay powell, interest rates, presumably they, too, would go up? another part of the doomsday snare dwlee would affect everybody? >> yeah. i think cristea saidwell. interest rates are likely to go up because some buyers go away. rates have to go up. those play out. if it happens any period of time those play out at a consumers rates, mortgage rates, that sort of thing. i would add in the absence of an actual bond default you're not looking at lehman. the real chaos is in the economy. in people who aren't getting their payments and really significant negative shock to the economy rather than in the markets. >> the other thing, if i could add there, jay, is what we don't know is the unknown unknown. so there are so many dominoes in the world economy that are connected to u.s. treasuries and that are built around a aaa rating for u.s. treasuries and we can't predict the link in the global chain to could break, should the u.s. default. >> should someone who's at home and watching this play itself out, the news is full of reports of what's going on behi
. >> jay powell, interest rates, presumably they, too, would go up? another part of the doomsday snare dwlee would affect everybody? >> yeah. i think cristea saidwell. interest rates are likely to go up because some buyers go away. rates have to go up. those play out. if it happens any period of time those play out at a consumers rates, mortgage rates, that sort of thing. i would add in the absence of an actual bond default you're not looking at lehman. the real chaos is in the...
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Jul 21, 2011
07/11
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jay powell served as top official at the treasury department under president george herbert walker bush and has studied the potential consequences for the independent bipartisan policy center. he joins us now. jay, what does happen when time runs out, whether it's august 1st, august 3rd, what do we see happening? the bond holders are going to be paid so what kind of choices does the president have to make? >> that's exactly what we see. we see if the debt ceiling's not raised by august 2, starting on august 3 and for the rest of the month, we assume the bond holders will be paid their interest. we assume there's not much risk on that. but that other creditors who are beneficiaries of federal government payments, approximately half of those won't be able to be paid, 50% of other government payments, there won't be the cash to pay them. and we tried many experiments. you can't cut 50% overnight without eliminating many, many popular, important programs. we tried. you can't do it. >> social security might be a separate issue because there are a lot of technical reasons why the trust funds
jay powell served as top official at the treasury department under president george herbert walker bush and has studied the potential consequences for the independent bipartisan policy center. he joins us now. jay, what does happen when time runs out, whether it's august 1st, august 3rd, what do we see happening? the bond holders are going to be paid so what kind of choices does the president have to make? >> that's exactly what we see. we see if the debt ceiling's not raised by august 2,...
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Jul 16, 2011
07/11
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. >> reporter: that's jay powell. he oversaw the debt under the first president bush. he says if the u.s. hits the debt ceiling with no more borrowing, the u.s. will bring in maybe $172 billion in revenue in august. but it's committed to spend, oh, about $306 billion. so there'd be enough money to pay just 56% of government's bills. and then -- >> the decision on who gets paid is left up to secretary of the treasury, geithner. he can decide what gets paid and what gets not. >> reporter: nearly everyone expecting wall street, investors, would get paid first, and u.s. would not default. but then, it's tough. government could pay social security, medicare and unemployment benefits, but there'd be no money to pay the troops. or government could pay the troops but then couldn't afford unemployment benefits. and in both cases, there'd be no money for security or any other federal workers. now back to wall street. what would happen to the markets? interest rates likely would rise. how much? that is in dispute. >> it seems very likely that there would be significant disruption
. >> reporter: that's jay powell. he oversaw the debt under the first president bush. he says if the u.s. hits the debt ceiling with no more borrowing, the u.s. will bring in maybe $172 billion in revenue in august. but it's committed to spend, oh, about $306 billion. so there'd be enough money to pay just 56% of government's bills. and then -- >> the decision on who gets paid is left up to secretary of the treasury, geithner. he can decide what gets paid and what gets not. >>...
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Jul 29, 2011
07/11
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jay powell, not an alarmist about this by the way is saying clearly still not being an alarmist, but there isn't a solution if they don't raise the debt ceiling. >> i find it fascinating of the trillion dollar coin. >> kind of underscores how absurd this debate has become. and you know, also there's been talk about the president having to prioritize payments. jay powell said legally, it's not so clear that the president has that power without congressional approval. so that's even questionable. >> we know how easy it is to get congressional approval for anything, even the faa these days. >> the trillion dollar coin is neat. i don't know that we anybody a trillion dollar. go and ask for change. the guy on the other side of the counter, like, you know, a wise acre in new york, says you have anything smaller? >> right. no, we have a trillion dollar coin, buddy. >> two half trillion dollar coins. you can split, you have a better shot. >> wouldn't be using it in new york. in hong kong or shanghai. >> that's true. where they always carry change. >> see you in the next hour as well. >>> wor
jay powell, not an alarmist about this by the way is saying clearly still not being an alarmist, but there isn't a solution if they don't raise the debt ceiling. >> i find it fascinating of the trillion dollar coin. >> kind of underscores how absurd this debate has become. and you know, also there's been talk about the president having to prioritize payments. jay powell said legally, it's not so clear that the president has that power without congressional approval. so that's even...
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Jul 14, 2011
07/11
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i spoke to jay powell who says there are limited appearses. >> it's funny. people want to believe the treasury department has a secret bag of tricks they can deploy to make sure the government is fully financed, and it just is not true. >> wolf, as august 2nd is the deadline, come august 3rd -- this is a wednesday, we have 12 billion into the coffers, but $32 billion in scheduled payment. the next day is not much better. under any scenario, that is an incredible amount of money, we have $10 billion that we owe. you can look at friday, same thing, $7 billion incoming, but $12 billion out the door. i spoke to someone at the treasury department. they say the point is even if the government is able to pay the interest on the debt that it owes, that they consider it still a default if the united states golf is not able to pay federal workers. the other point they make is that it's not easy to essentially just shut down payments. the u.s. government makes 80 million payments every single month, and a number of those are electron electronic, so it's not as easy as
i spoke to jay powell who says there are limited appearses. >> it's funny. people want to believe the treasury department has a secret bag of tricks they can deploy to make sure the government is fully financed, and it just is not true. >> wolf, as august 2nd is the deadline, come august 3rd -- this is a wednesday, we have 12 billion into the coffers, but $32 billion in scheduled payment. the next day is not much better. under any scenario, that is an incredible amount of money, we...
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Jul 24, 2011
07/11
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powell told us possibly difficult for the nation's chief executive. back to you. >> shannon: new details at this hour terror attack in norway. the man suspected in friday's bombing and mass shooting attack confessed and claims he acted along. andres breivik will appear in tomorrow. the death toll is 93. i'm shannon bream. hour two live in the nation's capitol starts right now. captions by closed captioning services >> shannon: sundays are often pretty sleepy here in washington not this afternoon. congressional leaders are racing to strike a deal hours from now. john boehner stepped up the pressure outline of an agreement in place before that at 4:00 p.m. eastern. mike emanuel is live at the white house latest on the dent talks or the lack therefore we should say today. the question many americans are asking right now will washington get this done, mike? >> that is a great question, shannon. i can tell you our colleague chris turner, who cover the senate says that a senior senate democratic leadership aide says the talks have hit a dead lock that speak
powell told us possibly difficult for the nation's chief executive. back to you. >> shannon: new details at this hour terror attack in norway. the man suspected in friday's bombing and mass shooting attack confessed and claims he acted along. andres breivik will appear in tomorrow. the death toll is 93. i'm shannon bream. hour two live in the nation's capitol starts right now. captions by closed captioning services >> shannon: sundays are often pretty sleepy here in washington not...
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Jul 22, 2011
07/11
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if there is no deal struck, august will prove, as jay powell told us, impossibly difficult for the nation's chief executive. jenna? jenna: maybe that's the phrase we'll use right now. james, thank you so much. the truth about the default and more as we get it. james rosen in d.c. more on that breaking news out of europe as well. bomb blast in oslo, we hear about an attack at a summer camp, a separate attack outside of the capital city. information coming in to our newsroom and also at foxnews.com. check it out during the break check it out during the break for all of the top stories. we'll be right back with more. . new citracal slow release... continuously releases calcium plus d for the efficient absorption my body needs. citracal. time to mix it up with new philly cooking creme. it'll make your chicken creamier, dreamier, with lot flavor. spread the love in four fabulous flavors. spoon in a little new philly cooking creme. jenna: a fox news alert as we bring you up-to-date about what happened now in oslo. oslo, the capital city of norway, trying to recover right now, again, reports of a
if there is no deal struck, august will prove, as jay powell told us, impossibly difficult for the nation's chief executive. jenna? jenna: maybe that's the phrase we'll use right now. james, thank you so much. the truth about the default and more as we get it. james rosen in d.c. more on that breaking news out of europe as well. bomb blast in oslo, we hear about an attack at a summer camp, a separate attack outside of the capital city. information coming in to our newsroom and also at...